Wednesday, August 22, 2012
Ethiopia After Meles
ICG, Africa Briefing No. 89
22 August 2012
The death of Prime Minister Meles Zenawi, who had not been seen in public for several months, was announced on 20 August 2012 by Ethiopian state television. The passing of the man who has been Ethiopia’s epicentre for 21 years will have profound national and regional consequences. Meles engineered one-party rule in effect for the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) and his Tigrayan inner circle, with the complicity of other ethnic elites that were co-opted into the ruling alliance, the Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF). The Front promised freedom, democracy and ethnic devolution but is highly centralised, tightly controls the economy and suppresses political, social, ethnic and religious liberties. In recent years, Meles had relied ever more on repression to quell growing dissent. His successor will lead a weaker regime that struggles to manage increasing unrest unless it truly implements ethnic federalism and institutes fundamental governance reform. The international community should seek to influence the transition actively because it has a major interest in the country’s stability.
Despite his authoritarianism and poor human rights records, Meles became an important asset to the international community, a staunch Western ally in counter-terrorism efforts in the region and a valued development partner for Western and emerging powers. In consequence, Ethiopia has become the biggest aid recipient in Africa, though Meles’s government was only able to partially stabilise either the country or region.
Ethiopia’s political system and society have grown increasingly unstable largely because the TPLF has become increasingly repressive, while failing to implement the policy of ethnic federalism it devised over twenty years ago to accommodate the land’s varied ethnic identities. The result has been greater political centralisation, with concomitant ethnicisation of grievances. The closure of political space has removed any legitimate means for people to channel those grievances. The government has encroached on social expression and curbed journalists, non-governmental organisations and religious freedoms. The cumulative effect is growing popular discontent, as well as radicalisation along religious and ethnic lines. Meles adroitly navigated a number of internal crises and kept TPLF factions under his tight control. Without him, however, the weaknesses of the regime he built will be more starkly exposed.
The transition will likely be an all-TPLF affair, even if masked beneath the constitution, the umbrella of the EPRDF and the prompt elevation of the deputy prime minister, Hailemariam Desalegn, to acting head of government. Given the opacity of the inner workings of the government and army, it is impossible to say exactly what it will look like and who will end up in charge. Nonetheless, any likely outcome suggests a much weaker government, a more influential security apparatus and endangered internal stability. The political opposition, largely forced into exile by Meles, will remain too fragmented and feeble to play a considerable role, unless brought on board in an internationally-brokered process. The weakened Tigrayan elite, confronted with the nation’s ethnic and religious cleavages, will be forced to rely on greater repression if it is to maintain power and control over other ethnic elites. Ethno-religious divisions and social unrest are likely to present genuine threats to the state’s long-term stability and cohesion.
The regional implications will be enormous. Increasing internal instability could threaten the viability of Ethiopia’s military interventions in Somalia and Sudan, exacerbate tensions with Eritrea, and, more broadly, put in question its role as the West’s key regional counter-terrorism ally. Should religious or ethnic radicalisation grow, it could well spill across borders and link with other armed radical Islamic groups.
The international community, particularly Ethiopia’s core allies, the U.S., UK and European Union (EU), should accordingly seek to play a significant role in preparing for and shaping the transition, by:
*tying political, military and development assistance to the opening of political space and an end to repressive measures;
*encouraging the post-Meles leadership to produce a clear roadmap, including transparent mechanisms within the TPLF and the EPRDF for apportioning the party and Front power Meles held and within parliament to lead to an all-inclusive, peaceful transition, resulting in free and fair elections within a fixed time; and
*helping to revive the political opposition’s ability.
Monday, August 20, 2012
Is Ethiopia's new leader in place for long?
By KIRUBEL TADESSE, Associated Press
ADDIS ABABA, Ethiopia (AP) — The death of Ethiopia's prime minister pushed his relatively unknown successor, Hailemariam Desalegn, into the spotlight on Tuesday, and he may be merely a placeholder or might hang on to become Ethiopia's next long-time leader.
Ethiopia's communication minister said government policy would remain consistent under Hailemariam, the former deputy prime minister and foreign minister who is now acting prime minister pending his swearing-in before an emergency session of parliament. The ruling party controls 546 of the 547 seats of parliament, all but ensuring Hailemariam's ascension to prime minister.
The country's armed forces pledged allegiance to the country's constitution and vowed to defend it during the post-Meles Zenawi era. Meles died Monday of an unknown illness at age 57. He had ruled Ethiopia since the 1990s.
Hailemariam was appointed deputy prime minister and minister of foreign affairs in September 2010, right after the ruling Ethiopian Peoples' Revolutionary Democratic Front's fourth successive election victory. A few weeks after the vote the party's congress promoted Hailemariam as a deputy chair of the party.
Although Hailemariam appears likely to soon take the oath of prime minister, the ruling party congress is scheduled to meet in late September and will decide if he will remain in the post until the 2015 elections. Political observers say the party congress could see fierce competition for the post. One analyst said he doubted Hailemariam could win over the military and intelligence leaders.
"I believe he will face a great challenge of being taken seriously by his subordinates for three reasons. First as he never exercised real power at national level, there is little established fear and respect about him," said Jawar Mohammed, an Ethiopian political analyst now studying at Columbia University in New York. "Second most of his subordinates are going to be individuals with longer experience and personal stature than him, which means they will overshadow him."
Negasso Gidada, a former Ethiopian president, said he does not know Hailemariam well.
"But they must know him well and have a confidence in him that they appoint him a deputy prime minister. I have no reason to doubt that," says Negasso, now the country's largest opposition leader.
The ruling EPRDF, a coalition of four parties has always appointed key members of Meles' Tigray Peoples' Liberation Front to key posts, including foreign affairs.
The change that saw Hailemariam ascend the party ranks was described by party leaders as the start of a succession plan that later saw lead party figures leave key government positions to retire or become diplomats abroad. The party said the succession plan would have come to an end by 2015 with Meles' retirement.
Charles Stith, the director of Boston University's African Presidential Center and a former U.S. ambassador to Tanzania, said Meles' death could end a relatively stable period for Ethiopia.
"His death is a reminder that leaders who long to stay in office, often stay too long to allow the growth of the necessary institutional infrastructure that allows states to sustain themselves," Stith said.
Read the entire article here
Meles Zenawi, Prime Minister of Ethiopia, Dies at 57
By JEFFREY GETTLEMAN, NYT
Published: August 21, 2012
Meles Zenawi, Ethiopia’s repressive prime minister, who lifted his country from the ruins of civil war and transformed it into one of Africa’s fastest-growing economies and one of the United States government’s closest African allies, died on Monday, state television reported. He was 57.
The Ethiopian authorities said he had died just before midnight in a hospital “abroad” — a European Commission spokesman told reporters that it was in Brussels — after getting a secondary infection. His failing health had been a matter of secrecy for months.
To read the full story on NYT click here.
Friday, August 3, 2012
Meles Zenawi's ill health causing jitters in ruling circles
For readers who are closely following the latest developments in homeland politics, especially regarding the issue of succession of government as might result from the Prime Minister's failing health, the Economist has just published a balanced assessment of the situation in Ethiopia and an insightful analysis. To read the entire article click here.
To read the entire article click here.
Saturday, July 28, 2012
Will Ethiopian crackdown stir Islamist backlash?
By William Davison, Correspondent / July 27, 2012
Bloomberg
ADDIS ABABA, ETHIOPIA
With arms raised and wrists crossed, silent Muslim worshippers surrounding the largest mosque in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia's capital, again today peacefully protested what they call a violent government response to legitimate demands.
The act of civil disobedience from Muslims, who constitute at least one-third of the population, is a rare sign of instability in a country seen by US policymakers as a bulwark against radical Islam in the volatile Horn of Africa region.
Last month, members of a committee mediating the dispute over perceived unconstitutional state interference in Islamic affairs were taken into custody, while unrest broke out on two occasions around separate mosques in the city of around 5 million people.
"We are showing solidarity with leaders who have been arrested but who are strong," says a demonstrator named Mohammed, referring to the vigil latched onto the end of midday prayers at Anwar Mosque. "They should be released; they were arrested for nothing." Moments later, nervous friends ushered him away.
Through military interventions in neighboring Somalia, crackdowns against a separatist movement in its Muslim-majority Ogaden region, and now the detention of Muslim activists in its capital, Ethiopia has taken on a role as front-line defense against the spread of political Islam in East Africa. It's a stance that broadly enjoys support from the West and neighboring countries, but some observers argue that Ethiopia's hard line may be creating a backlash, strengthening the appeal of insurgents whom it is battling to suppress.
Human rights group Amnesty International called on the Ethiopian government this week to either formally charge or to release those currently in detention. Amnesty also called on the Ethiopian government to investigate allegations of torture of detainees, to allow peaceful protest, and to use "proportionality in the use of force" against demonstrators who turn violent.
For its part, the Ethiopian government justifies its actions by saying that the real troublemakers are a tiny minority of foreign-influence Salafi extremists.
"This group actually deals day and night to create an Islamic state," says Shiferaw Teklemariam, the minister responsible for religious affairs. "This in the Ethiopian context is totally forbidden and against the constitution."
Activists scoff at the accusations. Ethiopia is a secular, multi-ethnic state, where Orthodox Christians predominate, they say. How could any Islamist group hope to create an Islamic state in such a country? The dismissal is seconded by Terje Østebø, an academic at the Center for African Studies and Department of Religion, University of Florida, who studies Islam in the Horn of Africa. He says that Ethiopia's historically oppressed Muslims are enthusiastic backers of the current secular system.
"Islamic reformists in Ethiopia have been very little concerned with politics, and certainly not advocated ideas in the direction of an Islamic state," he says. "In my numerous conversations with Muslims in Ethiopia, I never came across anyone favoring such ideas."
Other regional experts lean toward the official line that there are some externally-supported radicals that have hijacked the language of democratic rights to covertly pursue fundamentalism.
Protester demands
The committee's stated demands are for Islamic council elections to be held at mosques rather than at local government offices; for the government to stop its unconstitutional promotion of the moderate al-Ahbash sect popular in Lebanon; and for the Awalia Mosque in Addis Ababa to be returned to the community from a corrupted Islamic council.
The committee and its followers accuse Ethiopia's Islamic Affairs Supreme Council of being an undemocratic body packed with government stooges. Shiferaw, the Minister for Federal Affairs, denies any state meddling, saying there has been no promotion of al-Ahbash, and elections that begin on August 26 for two weeks are overseen solely by the Ulema Council of scholars, which he describes as Ethiopian Islam's highest authority.
On July 13, violence broke out for the first time in the capital since the nine month dispute began, after Muslims at the Awalia Mosque compound ignored warnings from the government to not hold a sadaqa (charity) gathering on the day that African heads of states were in town for an African Union meeting. The real purpose of the event, which was shut down before it began through a police raid, was to plot the Islamic takeover, Shiferaw claims, and the timing was "deliberately provocative."
"It's about killing the image of the country and trying to destroy the trust of African leaders in their own capital," he says. "I don't think you quarrel with your wife when guests are at the door, if you're really genuine enough for your wife."
The government said 74 arrests were made, which was followed a week later by the detainment of the leadership committee based at Awalia. The crackdown, however, did not prevent a huge number of worshippers at Anwar Mosque in the Mercato area on the first day of the holy month of Ramadan a week later, showing solidarity with those arrested. Ahmedin Jebel, a now-detained spokesman for the 17-man committee, said the government's attitude betrayed its authoritarianism. "Even if Muslims come to the AU summit to protest, if it's peaceful, it shows Ethiopia is democratic," he says. "Preventing and attacking shows Ethiopia is undemocratic."
Unrest followed the next day, instigated by masked extremists penning in worshippers, according to the government. On a Saturday afternoon at one of Africa's largest markets, all shops were shuttered and riot police patrolled normally heaving streets.
'They want to label us'
"They want to put our questions aside and label us, saying we have a political agenda, saying we are extremists," says Ahmedin.
Shiferaw is confident that the incidents have, in his view, unmasked Ahmedin's group in the eyes of Ethiopian Muslims, draining any support they had. "Heavy education" campaigns are also being conducted on state television to show a strategic alliance between the movement and forces including Somalia's al-Qaeda-affiliated al-Shabab militia and secular Ethiopian insurgents, he says. "We would like to clear any confusion and grey areas for people who joined them without knowing who they are," he says. "We will educate them a little bit and they will go home."
Mr. Østebø says he believes the government has misconstrued the rise in Salafism, which he says is largely a religious movement seeking to purify Islam. "This is not to downplay the potential of such movement becoming a threat to political security and stability, but one should not overlook the fact that representations of Salafism mostly take nonviolent forms," he says.
Salafists are welcome in Ethiopia as long as they don't coerce others to join their sect, says Shiferaw. But, at "hotspots" around the country, extremists "bring people to the mosque, they put them to the point of the gun and they request them if you're not converting yourself to the Wahabi, Salafi sect, you're gone, you're subject to be killed," he argues. Activists say such "wild allegations are the government's ploy to scare Ethiopians about a rise in extremism, and also score points with international backers."
While Salafism's rise has raised tensions there have been "hardly any reports of violent confrontations between so-called Sufis and Salafis," says Østebø.
"We are Muslims, nobody can divide us," says Ahmedin.
Bad response to real threat
Medhane Tadesse, an analyst of conflicts in the region, believes the government is making a belated and heavy-handed response to a genuine threat. Ethiopia has historically been a crucible for Islam's battle with Christianity, and foreign Wahabbist forces have been - and currently are - at work trying to control mosques and now the Islamic council to ensure ascendance, he believes.
"Ethiopia is important because of historical significance, and because of demography, it has more Muslims than Saudi Arabia, it's a big stake," he says.
The government needs to make a measured response by empowering Muslims while distinguishing foreign-influenced radicals from those with "genuine concerns," Medhane says.
"I think it's a significant event and unless it's managed in sober and legitimate way through democratic means then it may aggravate," he says. "The problem of the Ethiopian state historically is rather than playing the role of an arbiter between different interests and social classes it tries to decide, which is counter-productive."
Bloomberg
ADDIS ABABA, ETHIOPIA
With arms raised and wrists crossed, silent Muslim worshippers surrounding the largest mosque in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia's capital, again today peacefully protested what they call a violent government response to legitimate demands.
The act of civil disobedience from Muslims, who constitute at least one-third of the population, is a rare sign of instability in a country seen by US policymakers as a bulwark against radical Islam in the volatile Horn of Africa region.
Last month, members of a committee mediating the dispute over perceived unconstitutional state interference in Islamic affairs were taken into custody, while unrest broke out on two occasions around separate mosques in the city of around 5 million people.
"We are showing solidarity with leaders who have been arrested but who are strong," says a demonstrator named Mohammed, referring to the vigil latched onto the end of midday prayers at Anwar Mosque. "They should be released; they were arrested for nothing." Moments later, nervous friends ushered him away.
Through military interventions in neighboring Somalia, crackdowns against a separatist movement in its Muslim-majority Ogaden region, and now the detention of Muslim activists in its capital, Ethiopia has taken on a role as front-line defense against the spread of political Islam in East Africa. It's a stance that broadly enjoys support from the West and neighboring countries, but some observers argue that Ethiopia's hard line may be creating a backlash, strengthening the appeal of insurgents whom it is battling to suppress.
Human rights group Amnesty International called on the Ethiopian government this week to either formally charge or to release those currently in detention. Amnesty also called on the Ethiopian government to investigate allegations of torture of detainees, to allow peaceful protest, and to use "proportionality in the use of force" against demonstrators who turn violent.
For its part, the Ethiopian government justifies its actions by saying that the real troublemakers are a tiny minority of foreign-influence Salafi extremists.
"This group actually deals day and night to create an Islamic state," says Shiferaw Teklemariam, the minister responsible for religious affairs. "This in the Ethiopian context is totally forbidden and against the constitution."
Activists scoff at the accusations. Ethiopia is a secular, multi-ethnic state, where Orthodox Christians predominate, they say. How could any Islamist group hope to create an Islamic state in such a country? The dismissal is seconded by Terje Østebø, an academic at the Center for African Studies and Department of Religion, University of Florida, who studies Islam in the Horn of Africa. He says that Ethiopia's historically oppressed Muslims are enthusiastic backers of the current secular system.
"Islamic reformists in Ethiopia have been very little concerned with politics, and certainly not advocated ideas in the direction of an Islamic state," he says. "In my numerous conversations with Muslims in Ethiopia, I never came across anyone favoring such ideas."
Other regional experts lean toward the official line that there are some externally-supported radicals that have hijacked the language of democratic rights to covertly pursue fundamentalism.
Protester demands
The committee's stated demands are for Islamic council elections to be held at mosques rather than at local government offices; for the government to stop its unconstitutional promotion of the moderate al-Ahbash sect popular in Lebanon; and for the Awalia Mosque in Addis Ababa to be returned to the community from a corrupted Islamic council.
The committee and its followers accuse Ethiopia's Islamic Affairs Supreme Council of being an undemocratic body packed with government stooges. Shiferaw, the Minister for Federal Affairs, denies any state meddling, saying there has been no promotion of al-Ahbash, and elections that begin on August 26 for two weeks are overseen solely by the Ulema Council of scholars, which he describes as Ethiopian Islam's highest authority.
On July 13, violence broke out for the first time in the capital since the nine month dispute began, after Muslims at the Awalia Mosque compound ignored warnings from the government to not hold a sadaqa (charity) gathering on the day that African heads of states were in town for an African Union meeting. The real purpose of the event, which was shut down before it began through a police raid, was to plot the Islamic takeover, Shiferaw claims, and the timing was "deliberately provocative."
"It's about killing the image of the country and trying to destroy the trust of African leaders in their own capital," he says. "I don't think you quarrel with your wife when guests are at the door, if you're really genuine enough for your wife."
The government said 74 arrests were made, which was followed a week later by the detainment of the leadership committee based at Awalia. The crackdown, however, did not prevent a huge number of worshippers at Anwar Mosque in the Mercato area on the first day of the holy month of Ramadan a week later, showing solidarity with those arrested. Ahmedin Jebel, a now-detained spokesman for the 17-man committee, said the government's attitude betrayed its authoritarianism. "Even if Muslims come to the AU summit to protest, if it's peaceful, it shows Ethiopia is democratic," he says. "Preventing and attacking shows Ethiopia is undemocratic."
Unrest followed the next day, instigated by masked extremists penning in worshippers, according to the government. On a Saturday afternoon at one of Africa's largest markets, all shops were shuttered and riot police patrolled normally heaving streets.
'They want to label us'
"They want to put our questions aside and label us, saying we have a political agenda, saying we are extremists," says Ahmedin.
Shiferaw is confident that the incidents have, in his view, unmasked Ahmedin's group in the eyes of Ethiopian Muslims, draining any support they had. "Heavy education" campaigns are also being conducted on state television to show a strategic alliance between the movement and forces including Somalia's al-Qaeda-affiliated al-Shabab militia and secular Ethiopian insurgents, he says. "We would like to clear any confusion and grey areas for people who joined them without knowing who they are," he says. "We will educate them a little bit and they will go home."
Mr. Østebø says he believes the government has misconstrued the rise in Salafism, which he says is largely a religious movement seeking to purify Islam. "This is not to downplay the potential of such movement becoming a threat to political security and stability, but one should not overlook the fact that representations of Salafism mostly take nonviolent forms," he says.
Salafists are welcome in Ethiopia as long as they don't coerce others to join their sect, says Shiferaw. But, at "hotspots" around the country, extremists "bring people to the mosque, they put them to the point of the gun and they request them if you're not converting yourself to the Wahabi, Salafi sect, you're gone, you're subject to be killed," he argues. Activists say such "wild allegations are the government's ploy to scare Ethiopians about a rise in extremism, and also score points with international backers."
While Salafism's rise has raised tensions there have been "hardly any reports of violent confrontations between so-called Sufis and Salafis," says Østebø.
"We are Muslims, nobody can divide us," says Ahmedin.
Bad response to real threat
Medhane Tadesse, an analyst of conflicts in the region, believes the government is making a belated and heavy-handed response to a genuine threat. Ethiopia has historically been a crucible for Islam's battle with Christianity, and foreign Wahabbist forces have been - and currently are - at work trying to control mosques and now the Islamic council to ensure ascendance, he believes.
"Ethiopia is important because of historical significance, and because of demography, it has more Muslims than Saudi Arabia, it's a big stake," he says.
The government needs to make a measured response by empowering Muslims while distinguishing foreign-influenced radicals from those with "genuine concerns," Medhane says.
"I think it's a significant event and unless it's managed in sober and legitimate way through democratic means then it may aggravate," he says. "The problem of the Ethiopian state historically is rather than playing the role of an arbiter between different interests and social classes it tries to decide, which is counter-productive."
Thursday, July 26, 2012
Where is Meles Zenawi? Ethiopians don't know
By Tom Rhodes/CPJ East Africa Consultant
If you search for the name of Ethiopia's prime minister, Meles Zenawi, on Twitter these days, you'll see a flurry of incongruent postings: Meles is hospitalized in critical condition; he's fine and returning to work; he died two weeks ago; he's on holiday. Journalists for international news outlets have tried to sort out fact from rumor, but they've gotten no help from Ethiopian government officials who offered only vague assurances that the country's longtime leader was ill but recovering. In Ethiopia, where the government has imposed increasingly repressive measures on the domestic press corps, news coverage has been minimal and contradictory.
International news outlets, such as Reuters, The Associated Press, and the BBC, reported last week that Meles was hospitalized for an undisclosed condition. Reuters, citing diplomatic sources, said he was being treated in Brussels, although even that scant nugget of information was not officially confirmed.
Back home, generally pro-government papers such as Addis Fortune told readers on Tuesday that Meles had returned to Addis Ababa and would be back to work soon. The paper reported that the government provided little other information on his condition. A day later, though, the weekly The Reporter claimed that Meles was merely abroad on holiday.
The government censored the one domestic outlet that tried to report more detailed information. This weekend, the government ordered the state-run printing company not to produce the latest edition of the weekly Feteh, which was to have carried front-page coverage of Meles' condition. The weekly, which has faced government harassment in the past over its critical coverage, had prepared stories citing information from international news outlets and an exiled Ethiopian group.
"No one has a clear idea," said Benno Muechler, a German freelance reporter based in the capital. Muechler said he tried to get answers from the government communications office--only to be asked by officials there if he had any leads he could share. "There is an information blackout in Ethiopia," said exiled journalist Abebe Gellaw, who works for the critical exiled broadcaster Ethiopian Satellite Television. Gellaw noted that most Ethiopians get their information from the national broadcaster, which has vaguely reported that Meles is fine and would be back at his desk soon.
But then, where is Meles, and why can't he say this himself? "There is no trust in the media, with so many rumors. Whatever news that comes out here, nobody seems to believe it," Muechler said.
While the Ethiopian public may be skeptical, they are definitely seeking answers. Google Trends reports that searches for Meles have spiked this month, climbing far higher than at any point since the tracking's earliest date, in 2004. Public speculation about Meles began spreading in mid-July after the premier was conspicuously absent from the African Union Summit held in Addis Ababa. He also missed the ratification of the national budget and the official closing of parliament, according to local reports.
Journalists' hopes that a government press conference held after the AU summit would clear up the confusion were quickly dashed. "The only thing new that came out of the press conference [...] was the official breaking of government silence that has hovered over the issue for three weeks," Tamerat Waldyes wrote in Addis Fortune. Government spokesman Bereket Simon revealed only that the prime minister was recovering from an illness, was "exhausted" from his workload despite his "Herculean ability," and would be back at work soon, according to local reports.
When reporters asked about all the secrecy, Bereket's response was telling. He said the government did not want to "make a public relations piece out of it" and that the circumspection "is the culture of our party," according to The Reporter.
Ethiopia's ruling party has never been open to the public. Despite Bereket's promises in the past to hold press conferences every two weeks with Meles meeting the press every two months, the government has held only two press conferences in the last eight months and it has been more a year since the prime minister met with the press, according to local reports. "There is a power vacuum at the moment, and so the information is hidden," said one local journalist, who spoke on condition of anonymity because he feared government reprisal for offering critical comments. "The media has always been controlled by the state so the media has never developed investigative journalism in Ethiopia, and we are lost for answers,"
This information vacuum can have a detrimental effect on both the public and the government. Rumors, rather than facts, inform public opinion, and public confidence in the government is eroded. "Whenever you deliberately spread misinformation, you lose people's trust," Abebe told me. "The impact for the government is that it loses credibility." The silence over Meles is the "old school way of doing things," writes the Kenya-based Nation columnist Mwenda wa Micheni. "Presidents never went down with a cold, even in the cold months; jesters were regular features and public accounting totally absent, something that locked the continent's potential for decades," Micheni writes. "But even as the continent strives to get unchained, a few leaders are stuck in the mud."
(Reporting from Nairobi)
If you search for the name of Ethiopia's prime minister, Meles Zenawi, on Twitter these days, you'll see a flurry of incongruent postings: Meles is hospitalized in critical condition; he's fine and returning to work; he died two weeks ago; he's on holiday. Journalists for international news outlets have tried to sort out fact from rumor, but they've gotten no help from Ethiopian government officials who offered only vague assurances that the country's longtime leader was ill but recovering. In Ethiopia, where the government has imposed increasingly repressive measures on the domestic press corps, news coverage has been minimal and contradictory.
International news outlets, such as Reuters, The Associated Press, and the BBC, reported last week that Meles was hospitalized for an undisclosed condition. Reuters, citing diplomatic sources, said he was being treated in Brussels, although even that scant nugget of information was not officially confirmed.
Back home, generally pro-government papers such as Addis Fortune told readers on Tuesday that Meles had returned to Addis Ababa and would be back to work soon. The paper reported that the government provided little other information on his condition. A day later, though, the weekly The Reporter claimed that Meles was merely abroad on holiday.
The government censored the one domestic outlet that tried to report more detailed information. This weekend, the government ordered the state-run printing company not to produce the latest edition of the weekly Feteh, which was to have carried front-page coverage of Meles' condition. The weekly, which has faced government harassment in the past over its critical coverage, had prepared stories citing information from international news outlets and an exiled Ethiopian group.
"No one has a clear idea," said Benno Muechler, a German freelance reporter based in the capital. Muechler said he tried to get answers from the government communications office--only to be asked by officials there if he had any leads he could share. "There is an information blackout in Ethiopia," said exiled journalist Abebe Gellaw, who works for the critical exiled broadcaster Ethiopian Satellite Television. Gellaw noted that most Ethiopians get their information from the national broadcaster, which has vaguely reported that Meles is fine and would be back at his desk soon.
But then, where is Meles, and why can't he say this himself? "There is no trust in the media, with so many rumors. Whatever news that comes out here, nobody seems to believe it," Muechler said.
While the Ethiopian public may be skeptical, they are definitely seeking answers. Google Trends reports that searches for Meles have spiked this month, climbing far higher than at any point since the tracking's earliest date, in 2004. Public speculation about Meles began spreading in mid-July after the premier was conspicuously absent from the African Union Summit held in Addis Ababa. He also missed the ratification of the national budget and the official closing of parliament, according to local reports.
Journalists' hopes that a government press conference held after the AU summit would clear up the confusion were quickly dashed. "The only thing new that came out of the press conference [...] was the official breaking of government silence that has hovered over the issue for three weeks," Tamerat Waldyes wrote in Addis Fortune. Government spokesman Bereket Simon revealed only that the prime minister was recovering from an illness, was "exhausted" from his workload despite his "Herculean ability," and would be back at work soon, according to local reports.
When reporters asked about all the secrecy, Bereket's response was telling. He said the government did not want to "make a public relations piece out of it" and that the circumspection "is the culture of our party," according to The Reporter.
Ethiopia's ruling party has never been open to the public. Despite Bereket's promises in the past to hold press conferences every two weeks with Meles meeting the press every two months, the government has held only two press conferences in the last eight months and it has been more a year since the prime minister met with the press, according to local reports. "There is a power vacuum at the moment, and so the information is hidden," said one local journalist, who spoke on condition of anonymity because he feared government reprisal for offering critical comments. "The media has always been controlled by the state so the media has never developed investigative journalism in Ethiopia, and we are lost for answers,"
This information vacuum can have a detrimental effect on both the public and the government. Rumors, rather than facts, inform public opinion, and public confidence in the government is eroded. "Whenever you deliberately spread misinformation, you lose people's trust," Abebe told me. "The impact for the government is that it loses credibility." The silence over Meles is the "old school way of doing things," writes the Kenya-based Nation columnist Mwenda wa Micheni. "Presidents never went down with a cold, even in the cold months; jesters were regular features and public accounting totally absent, something that locked the continent's potential for decades," Micheni writes. "But even as the continent strives to get unchained, a few leaders are stuck in the mud."
(Reporting from Nairobi)
Ethiopia Bans Newspaper After Stories on Meles Illness, Protests
William Davison -
Bloomberg
Jul 26, 2012
An Ethiopian court banned distribution of a newspaper that published front-page articles about Prime Minister Meles Zenawi’s health and protests by Muslims in the capital, Addis Ababa, the government said.
Editors from the weekly Feteh newspaper may face criminal charges because of national security concerns, State Minister of Justice Berhanu Tsegaye said in a phone interview today. Last week, Ethiopian authorities seized 30,000 copies of the newspaper containing the stories about Meles and the protests, Hailemeskel Beshewamyelhu, a deputy editor, said July 24.
Read the entire story here.
Jul 26, 2012
An Ethiopian court banned distribution of a newspaper that published front-page articles about Prime Minister Meles Zenawi’s health and protests by Muslims in the capital, Addis Ababa, the government said.
Editors from the weekly Feteh newspaper may face criminal charges because of national security concerns, State Minister of Justice Berhanu Tsegaye said in a phone interview today. Last week, Ethiopian authorities seized 30,000 copies of the newspaper containing the stories about Meles and the protests, Hailemeskel Beshewamyelhu, a deputy editor, said July 24.
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