Ethiopia starts negotiating with Ogaden separatist rebels

By Associated Press, ADDIS ABABA, Ethiopia — The Ethiopian government and separatist rebels say they have started negotiations. Ethiopian officials and representatives of the Ogaden National Liberation Front, or ONLF, met in Kenya for peace talks last week, the rebels said in a statement Saturday. Read more.

Ethiopia Faces Dangers but Also Opportunities in Meles Succession

Despite tensions in the ruling party over choosing a replacement, the passing of a man who ruled for a generation may produce a more responsive government By William Lloyd-George, Addis Ababa, September 7, 2012

Nibret Gelese spent years saving up to move from his home town Mekele, in the north of Ethiopia, and make a newlife in Addis Ababa. “Everyone said it was the place to be, the place to get rich,” he tells TIME shutting the rusty door to his small phone shop. “Now I’m not sure what to expect, everyone is pretty scared about what might happen without Meles.” Nibret’s anxiety over life without Prime Minister Meles Zenawi, who died August 20 from an undisclosed illness after ruling Ethiopia for 21 years, is echoed across the sprawling capital. “Meles was our hero, he kept the bad people in government under control, and developed our county enormously,” says a taxi driver. Meles had dropped out of medical school to fight in the Tigrayan People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), part of the alliance that in 1991 overthrew the communist dictator Mengistu Haile Mariam. Since then, Meles has been praised for his vision of an ‘Ethiopian Renaissance’ and for policies that helped alleviate a great deal of Ethiopia’s poverty. Many fear that progress and stability won’t be sustained without his leadership. Read more here

Somaliland: Stop Deporting Ethiopian Refugees

Human Rights Watch (Nairobi) – The Somaliland authorities should immediately stop deporting Ethiopian refugees and asylum seekers to Ethiopia. On August 31, 2012, dozens of Ethiopians, mostly women and children, were forcibly returned to Ethiopia in violation of international legal prohibitions against sending people to places where they might face persecution or threats to their lives. The Somaliland authorities deported Ethiopians arrested after police raids on August 30 and 31 on an informal settlement known as the Social Welfare Centre in Somaliland’s main city, Hargeisa, where several hundred asylum seekers and migrants from Ethiopia have lived for almost a year. The exact number and immigration status of those returned is unclear, but a witness estimated seeing around 100 people sent across the border. In late December 2011, Somaliland attempted to forcibly return 20 Ethiopian refugees and asylum seekers and tried to close down the Social Welfare Centre. “Rounding up and deporting asylum seekers is not the way to treat vulnerable people seeking Somaliland’s protection,” said Leslie Lefkow, deputy Africa director at Human Rights Watch. “Somaliland authorities should instead ensure that Ethiopian asylum seekers are registered and given the protection and assistance to which they are entitled.” Human Rights Watch said deporting registered refugees and asylum seekers constitutes refoulement, the unlawful return of anyone to persecution or to a place where their life or freedom is threatened. International law prohibits the deportation of anyone seeking asylum before they have received a fair determination of their claim. Local sources told Human Rights Watch that on the morning of August 30 the owner of land surrounding the Social Welfare Centre told the Ethiopians living there to leave. When they refused, fighting broke out and police arrived. According to witnesses, police fired live ammunition during the ensuing struggle and wounded at least six Ethiopians, including one who was shot in the arm and the leg. The sources also said Ethiopians at the centre may have injured four police officers. The police then arrested 56 of the Ethiopians, including the majority of those injured, and took them to different detention facilities in Hargeisa. 25 registered refugees and two asylum seekers were detained at the Central Police Station. One of those refugees told Human Rights Watch that six injured refugees had not received medical assistance for three days before they were released. According to witnesses, police returned to the centre during the morning and early afternoon of August 31 and loaded dozens of people –mainly women and children –onto several trucks and drove them to the border town of Wajale. The same afternoon, the police drove 28 men they had detained on August 30 in Hargeisa to Wajale. The first two trucks, one carrying the men and another carrying primarily women and children, immediately crossed into Ethiopia and dropped the individuals off on Ethiopian territory. According to the United Nations refugee agency, on the evening of August 31 staff members identified 72 refugees among the group still at Wajale, as well as one woman who had been driven across to the Ethiopian side of the border. The refugee agency returned them to Hargeisa. However, Somaliland authorities prevented the UN refugee agency from assisting an unknown number of other individuals in Wajale, including registered asylum seekers, and the individuals who had already been brought across the border to Ethiopia. As of September 4, the location of the other Ethiopians returned to their country was unknown, Human Rights Watch said. An unconfirmed report said that 32 men were detained at the Ethiopian border post until the afternoon of September 1, when Ethiopian authorities transferred them to an unknown location. “The Somaliland authorities should allow the UN refugee agency prompt access to Ethiopians facing deportation to give them a chance to seek asylum,” Lefkow said. “The ongoing deadlock in the asylum process in Somaliland is not an excuse for any abuses.” Background Since October 2011, hundreds of refugees and asylum seekers from Ethiopia – as well as migrants who have been unable to claim asylum since the Somaliland authorities suspended registration in 2008 – have lived in the Social Welfare Centre, which was leased by the UN High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR). Since the lease ended in late December 2011, the centre’s owner has pressed the authorities to forcibly evict those living there. In March 2012, the authorities destroyed part of a makeshift camp set up on the edge of the centre, saying it was part of a wider urban “clean-up exercise.” Somaliland ended all registration of asylum seekers in October 2008 following a series of suicide bombings in Hargeisa. UNHCR estimates that there are at least 20,000 undocumented foreigners in Somaliland, including unknown numbers of Ethiopians and others who want to claim asylum but cannot do so because they cannot register. Since March 2012, UNHCR and the minister of interior have been re-registering asylum seekers who registered before October 2008, although it appears asylum claims have not all been reviewed. UNHCR says registration of all non-registered migrants is scheduled to resume in September 2012. Large numbers flee Ethiopia to escape persecution every year. Refugees who are returned by force have frequently been detained by the authorities. Torture is common in Ethiopia's prisons.

Ethiopia After Meles

ICG, Africa Briefing No. 89 22 August 2012 The death of Prime Minister Meles Zenawi, who had not been seen in public for several months, was announced on 20 August 2012 by Ethiopian state television. The passing of the man who has been Ethiopia’s epicentre for 21 years will have profound national and regional consequences. Meles engineered one-party rule in effect for the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) and his Tigrayan inner circle, with the complicity of other ethnic elites that were co-opted into the ruling alliance, the Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF). The Front promised freedom, democracy and ethnic devolution but is highly centralised, tightly controls the economy and suppresses political, social, ethnic and religious liberties. In recent years, Meles had relied ever more on repression to quell growing dissent. His successor will lead a weaker regime that struggles to manage increasing unrest unless it truly implements ethnic federalism and institutes fundamental governance reform. The international community should seek to influence the transition actively because it has a major interest in the country’s stability. Despite his authoritarianism and poor human rights records, Meles became an important asset to the international community, a staunch Western ally in counter-terrorism efforts in the region and a valued development partner for Western and emerging powers. In consequence, Ethiopia has become the biggest aid recipient in Africa, though Meles’s government was only able to partially stabilise either the country or region. Ethiopia’s political system and society have grown increasingly unstable largely because the TPLF has become increasingly repressive, while failing to implement the policy of ethnic federalism it devised over twenty years ago to accommodate the land’s varied ethnic identities. The result has been greater political centralisation, with concomitant ethnicisation of grievances. The closure of political space has removed any legitimate means for people to channel those grievances. The government has encroached on social expression and curbed journalists, non-gov­ern­men­tal organisations and religious freedoms. The cumulative effect is growing popular discontent, as well as radicalisation along religious and ethnic lines. Meles adroitly navigated a number of internal crises and kept TPLF factions under his tight control. Without him, however, the weaknesses of the regime he built will be more starkly exposed. The transition will likely be an all-TPLF affair, even if masked beneath the constitution, the umbrella of the EPRDF and the prompt elevation of the deputy prime minister, Hailemariam Desalegn, to acting head of government. Given the opacity of the inner workings of the government and army, it is impossible to say exactly what it will look like and who will end up in charge. Nonetheless, any likely outcome suggests a much weaker government, a more influential security apparatus and endangered internal stability. The political opposition, largely forced into exile by Meles, will remain too fragmented and feeble to play a considerable role, unless brought on board in an internationally-brokered process. The weakened Tigrayan elite, confronted with the nation’s ethnic and religious cleavages, will be forced to rely on greater repression if it is to maintain power and control over other ethnic elites. Ethno-religious divisions and social unrest are likely to present genuine threats to the state’s long-term stability and cohesion. The regional implications will be enormous. Increasing internal instability could threaten the viability of Ethiopia’s military interventions in Somalia and Sudan, exacerbate tensions with Eritrea, and, more broadly, put in question its role as the West’s key regional counter-terrorism ally. Should religious or ethnic radicalisation grow, it could well spill across borders and link with other armed radical Islamic groups. The international community, particularly Ethiopia’s core allies, the U.S., UK and European Union (EU), should accordingly seek to play a significant role in preparing for and shaping the transition, by: *tying political, military and development assistance to the opening of political space and an end to repressive measures; *encouraging the post-Meles leadership to produce a clear roadmap, including transparent mechanisms within the TPLF and the EPRDF for apportioning the party and Front power Meles held and within parliament to lead to an all-inclusive, peaceful transition, resulting in free and fair elections within a fixed time; and *helping to revive the political opposition’s ability.

Is Ethiopia's new leader in place for long?

By KIRUBEL TADESSE, Associated Press ADDIS ABABA, Ethiopia (AP) — The death of Ethiopia's prime minister pushed his relatively unknown successor, Hailemariam Desalegn, into the spotlight on Tuesday, and he may be merely a placeholder or might hang on to become Ethiopia's next long-time leader. Ethiopia's communication minister said government policy would remain consistent under Hailemariam, the former deputy prime minister and foreign minister who is now acting prime minister pending his swearing-in before an emergency session of parliament. The ruling party controls 546 of the 547 seats of parliament, all but ensuring Hailemariam's ascension to prime minister. The country's armed forces pledged allegiance to the country's constitution and vowed to defend it during the post-Meles Zenawi era. Meles died Monday of an unknown illness at age 57. He had ruled Ethiopia since the 1990s. Hailemariam was appointed deputy prime minister and minister of foreign affairs in September 2010, right after the ruling Ethiopian Peoples' Revolutionary Democratic Front's fourth successive election victory. A few weeks after the vote the party's congress promoted Hailemariam as a deputy chair of the party. Although Hailemariam appears likely to soon take the oath of prime minister, the ruling party congress is scheduled to meet in late September and will decide if he will remain in the post until the 2015 elections. Political observers say the party congress could see fierce competition for the post. One analyst said he doubted Hailemariam could win over the military and intelligence leaders. "I believe he will face a great challenge of being taken seriously by his subordinates for three reasons. First as he never exercised real power at national level, there is little established fear and respect about him," said Jawar Mohammed, an Ethiopian political analyst now studying at Columbia University in New York. "Second most of his subordinates are going to be individuals with longer experience and personal stature than him, which means they will overshadow him." Negasso Gidada, a former Ethiopian president, said he does not know Hailemariam well. "But they must know him well and have a confidence in him that they appoint him a deputy prime minister. I have no reason to doubt that," says Negasso, now the country's largest opposition leader. The ruling EPRDF, a coalition of four parties has always appointed key members of Meles' Tigray Peoples' Liberation Front to key posts, including foreign affairs. The change that saw Hailemariam ascend the party ranks was described by party leaders as the start of a succession plan that later saw lead party figures leave key government positions to retire or become diplomats abroad. The party said the succession plan would have come to an end by 2015 with Meles' retirement. Charles Stith, the director of Boston University's African Presidential Center and a former U.S. ambassador to Tanzania, said Meles' death could end a relatively stable period for Ethiopia. "His death is a reminder that leaders who long to stay in office, often stay too long to allow the growth of the necessary institutional infrastructure that allows states to sustain themselves," Stith said. Read the entire article here

Meles Zenawi, Prime Minister of Ethiopia, Dies at 57

By JEFFREY GETTLEMAN, NYT Published: August 21, 2012 Meles Zenawi, Ethiopia’s repressive prime minister, who lifted his country from the ruins of civil war and transformed it into one of Africa’s fastest-growing economies and one of the United States government’s closest African allies, died on Monday, state television reported. He was 57. The Ethiopian authorities said he had died just before midnight in a hospital “abroad” — a European Commission spokesman told reporters that it was in Brussels — after getting a secondary infection. His failing health had been a matter of secrecy for months. To read the full story on NYT click here.

Meles Zenawi's ill health causing jitters in ruling circles

For readers who are closely following the latest developments in homeland politics, especially regarding the issue of succession of government as might result from the Prime Minister's failing health, the Economist has just published a balanced assessment of the situation in Ethiopia and an insightful analysis.

To read the entire article click here.